Friday, May 15, 2009

Dollar Devaluation

All of my current leverage comes from the short AAPL July $125 put option. I am very comfortable with holding this position until expiration. Why so comfortable? Aside from the company's great fundamentals that I already addressed, the biggest threat is obviously the macroeconomic situation.

Over the past couple months, it is becoming increasingly clear that deflation is not going to be a threat. If it becomes a threat again, governments will respond by printing more money than ever before again. If the S&P tries to retest March lows more money will be printed. It is clear that devaluing the dollar is preferred by the Fed to having retirement accounts and home values down 50% (and consumer budgets cut accordingly). The devaluation* of the dollar is eminent, another reserve currency (yuan) will be there before the next financial or asset-bubble collapse, and the U.S. will not be able to reap the benefits of being the world's sole reserve currency.

*devaluation is different that just inflation. Devaluation is the dollar becoming worth less relative to other currencies. Devaluation of the dollar occurs when the dollar out inflates other currencies.

Apple is in a good position to handle a devaluation of the dollar because 45% of their revenue is generated from overseas. International demand for Apple products will continue to increase, and who knows, maybe if international sales reach 75% of revenue AAPL will become the world's reserve currency.

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