WWDC '09 Impression

Apple is trying to fuel investor confidence by keeping surprises, and thus violent price swings, to a minimum. Having Steve Jobs show up a few weeks earlier than planned to cause a short-term spike in AAPL price would be foolish. He will be back later as planned, investors like things to go as planned.

People love to second-guess Apple because the company has uniquely positioned itself to have a lot of opportunities. It is easy to point at something they could have done, such as an OLED screen for the iPhone.

Waiting another year before ditching the AT&T subsidy is also a case of maximizing profits, and minimizing risks. The risk being that incremental unit sales to Verizon wouldn't be enough to make up for the decline in profit margins. Apple can make drastic strategic changes through venturing into new product categories. However, they have consistently proven that they change product pricing, margin, mix strategies within each category very gradually.

Just look at how they gradually made the aluminum 13" macbook join the 'macbook pro' family. They gradually reduced iPhone's price, with the iPhone 3G at $99 (and the subsidy from AT&T unchanged) Apple is gradually sacrificing profit margin for market share.  

I think Apple is conservatively fairly valued in the $140-$150 range.  I am done rolling up my AAPL put options for now.  A new product release such as the much rumored netbook tablet, an AppleTV that is no longer a hobby, or the release of the iPhone in China might be reason enough to roll up the put $10.