Sobering Stats on AOL

From AOL's detailed report on Q1:

Clearly, they are still bleeding subscribers and AOL admits that this will continue until everyone who realizes they're paying $25/month for dial-up changes their email addresses over to Gmail.  Their future is in advertising.  Which, didn't do all that well either with a 19% year over year decline.  Take a close look at AOL's advertising revenue break-down:

Search and contextual advertising makes up about 1/3 (120.7 / 354.3) of AOL's total advertising revenue.  Notice that Search and contextual advertising declined by 29% while Subscription revenue declined by 28%.  This is no coincidence as all of AOL's search advertising revenue is made by AOL subscribers that search through the AOL portal instead of Google, Yahoo, or Bing.  Assuming that the rate of subscriber decline continues at 25% year over year.  Assuming all other revenues stop declining and display advertising, AOL's supposed future starts growing.  In order to keep total revenues from declining AOL needs to see display advertising grow revenue (120.7 + 282.7) * .25 = 100.85 or close to 80% year over year.  I don't see this happening, sorry Tim Armstrong.