Out of Mosaic, Off to Greener Pastures

The chart on this looks bad, and don't want to risk losing my profits on this position for the amount of premium I have left on it.  Bought back the short Jan '11 MOS put for $4.30 today.  That is down from my selling price of $10.70 back in October, for a gain on the position of $6.40 (x100).

Although Mosaic is a great hedge against food inflation, I think that will come later on as it did during the last inflation bout 2004 - 2008.  If the Fed does not start raising rates soon then I think the inflation trade could get too much momentum behind it and the Fed will be unwilling to take drastic enough rate hikes to stop it.  I will be looking to repositioning into a put on one of the big oil companies as I think oil and not fertilizer is the place to be at the beginning of another inflation wave.

I also think the chart for M&T bank looks great, and I'm looking at selling the $85 July put for around $5 to gain exposure to this company again.  My delta on AAPL is all the way down to 66!  Can not believe how quickly AAPL has moved up from $200 in the past month without any significant pullback, I'll be looking to raise my delta to AAPL to up closer to 100 on a pullback, maybe selling another $200 Jan '12 put since to me it looks like free money.  When it looks like free money, seems too obvious that given Apple's cash hoard and earnings power it will stay above $200 for the next two years, that things are dangerous.  However, it looks like Apple's success has been recognized by the market and the American people, it has truly become one of our greatest companies looked up to around the world.  I think the days of being able to buy them at $180, close to 10x forward earnings ex-cash are over.